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CREF promotes original and high-impact lines of research, based on physical methods, but with a strong interdisciplinary character and in relation to the main problems of the modern knowledge society.
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The CREF was born with a dual soul: a research centre and a historical museum. Its aim is to preserve and disseminate the memory of Enrico Fermi and to promote the dissemination and communication of scientific culture.
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Il CREF indice una selezione pubblica, per titoli e colloquio, per il conferimento di n. 1 assegno di...
Recognizing the transformative potential of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Large Language Models...
la ricerca
Complexity in the natural, social and economic sciences
Head of the research line
Luciano Pietronero
Overview
The Social and Economic Complexity project is divided into two macro areas: applications of the Economic Fitness and Complexity framework, and network methods and theory.
Economic Fitness and Complexity is an economic method developed by Luciano Pietronero’s group, first at Sapienza and currently at CREF.
This method uses modern data analysis techniques to build economic models based on a rigorously measurable and testable scientific methodology that can be traced back to the physics of complex systems.
Instead of relying on economic theories, it evaluates specific and concrete problems using a data-based and bottom-up approach. Information from past growth data for all countries is acquired and analyzed with Complex Networks, Algorithms and Machine Learning methods.
This method has proved to be efficient due to the ability to predict the growth of various countries. It has proven to be superior to that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as also described by Bloomberg Views:
“New research has demonstrated that the “fitness” technique systematically outperforms standard methods, despite requiring much less data”.
This method is currently used by World Bank Group and Joint Research Center
Download the document “Economic Fitness Concepts, Methods and Applications”
Luciano Pietronero, Andrea Tacchella, Dario Mazzilli, Aurelio Patelli, Angelica Sbardella, Fabio Saracco
Le future direzioni del progetto saranno sia teoriche che direttamente applicative.
Dal lato teorico si andrà a formulare una micro fondazione della Fitness partendo da principi di ottimizzazione e gestione di risorse. Collegando l’attuale interpretazione dell’algoritmo di Fitness & Complexity alla teoria del trasporto ottimale si andrà a creare un ponte con teorie economiche più classiche.
Il metodo sarà applicato alle esigenze odierne della società, in linea con gli obbiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile. Di particolare interesse saranno sia le analisi della sostenibilità e di come affrontare al meglio la Transizione Verde, sia le analisi riguardanti la dinamica delle informazioni di reti sociali: fake news, echo chambers, e lo sviluppo di smart cities.
Sarà inoltre possibile analizzare, da un punto di vista di complessità economica, eventi di attualità come la situazione dell’est Europa e la ripresa economica post Covid-19.
This methodology is currently used within the:
European Commission – Joint Research Center di Siviglia: A. Tacchella, E. Pugliese, L.Napolitano, gruppo Complexity. (https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC124939)
IFC – World Bank: M. Cader
Collaborations with Research Institutes:
SonyLab – Parigi e Roma:
CNEL: Prof. Tiziano Treu
ISC – CNR
Collaborations with Universities
We work in synergy with Sapienza Università di Roma and Tor Vergata.
- There is More than a Power Law in Zipf Matthieu Cristelli, Michael Batty & Luciano Pietronero Scientific Reports volume 2, Article number: 812 (2012)
- Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse Riccardo Di Clemente & Luciano Pietronero Scientific Reports volume 2, Article number: 532 (2012)
- A Network Analysis of Countries’ Export Flows: Firm Grounds for the Building Blocks of the Economy, Guido Caldarelli, Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Gabrielli, Luciano Pietronero, Antonio Scala, Andrea Tacchella Plos One: October 19, 2012 https://doi.org/
- Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading, Federico Garzarelli, Matthieu Cristelli, Gabriele Pompa, Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero Scientific Reports volume 4, Article number: 4487 (2015)
- Diversification versus Specialization in Complex Ecosystems Riccardo Di Clemente , Guido L. Chiarotti, Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Tacchella, Luciano Pietronero Published: November 10, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0112525
- The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity Matthieu Cristelli , Andrea Tacchella, Luciano PietroneroPLOS,Published: February 11, 2015 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117174
- Economic development and wage inequality: A complex system analysis Angelica Sbardella, Emanuele Pugliese , Luciano Pietronero PLOS Published: September 19, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182774
- The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties Orazio Angelini , Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Zaccaria, Luciano Pietronero, PLOS Published: May 17, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0177360
- Economic development and wage inequality: A complex system analysis Angelica Sbardella, Emanuele Pugliese , Luciano Pietronero PLOS Published: September 19, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182774
- Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Gabrielli , Andrea Tacchella, Guido Caldarelli, Luciano Pietronero PLOS Published: August 5, 2013 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070726
- A New Metrics for Countries’ Fitness and Products’ Complexity Andrea Tacchella, Matthieu Cristelli, Guido Caldarelli, Andrea Gabrielli & Luciano Pietronero Scientific Reports volume 2, Article number: 723 (2012)
- How the Taxonomy of Products Drives the Economic Development of Countries Andrea Zaccaria , Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Tacchella, Luciano Pietronero, PLOS Published: December 8, 2014 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113770
- Complex Economies Have a Lateral Escape from the Poverty Trap Emanuele Pugliese , Guido L. Chiarotti, Andrea Zaccaria, Luciano Pietronero, PLOS Published: January 10, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0168540
- Dynamics in the Fitness-Income plane: Brazilian states vs World countries Felipe G. Operti, Emanuele Pugliese, José S. Andrade Jr., Luciano Pietronero, Andrea Gabrielli PLOS Published: June 6, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197616
- A dynamical systems approach to gross domestic product forecasting A. Tacchella, D. Mazzilli and L. Pietronero, Nature Physics, Vol 14,August 2018 | 861–865
Video
- Global Innovation Forum 2019
- L’economia in mano agli algoritmi
- New metrics for economic complexity (Systems Analysis 2015)
- Conference “Emerging Patterns”
- An interview with professor Luciano Pietronero (JICA Ogata Research Institute)
International Reviews
- Mark Buchanan, “Witness the fitness”, Nature Physics, vol.14, August 2018, 773
- Bob Yirka, “Using physics to make better GDP estimates”, PhysOrg 31 July 2018
- “A new technique for forecasting economic growth”, Nature Physics, July 31 2018,
- Chris Lee, “Physicists’ simple spanks economists’ complex in economic growth forecasts”, Ars Technica, 8/2/2018
- Michael Lucy “Physicists barge in on economists. Predictions ensue” Cosmos, July 30, 2018
- Tyler Cowen, “Applying Physics to GDP Forecasting”, , Marginal Revolution 3 August, 2018
- Mark Buchanan, “A better way to make economic forecast” Bloomberg View, 2 October 2017
- Luciano Pietronero, “Big Data and Economic Complexity: Opportunity and Myth”, Aspenia January 3, 2015
- Brian Wang, “Having a wider range and more sophisticated production predicts more future gdp growth” Next big Future, October 5 2017
- Mark Buchanan, China might still be booming, Bloomberg View, March 2, 2015
- “Physicists make weather forecast for economies in EU-funded project GROWTHCOM” European Commission Projects 25 February 2015
- Richard Van Noorden, Physicists make weather forecasts for economies, Nature 23 February 2015
National Reviews
- Forbes: Tre fisici italiani hanno scoperto un modo migliore per prevedere il Pil. Ce l’hanno spiegato
- L’Indro: PIL cresce chi esporta complesso
- Repubblica: Si chiama export complesso l’ultima frontiera del business
- L’Espresso: Quali Paesi cresceranno di piu’ in futuro?
- Fanpage Scienza: L’algoritmo italiano che dice qual e’ il potenziale economico dei paesi
- Corriere della Sera: I fisici del CNR inventano l’algoritmo che prevede il PIL e Alibaba lo adotta
- Tom’s Hardware: L’Italia e’ competitiva, dice l’algoritmo del CNR, ma ci frega la corruzione
- Il Fatto Quotidiano: Quando crescera’ il PIL?
- Il Fatto Quotidiano: L’economia e’ un biosistema
- Il Sole 24 Ore: Sul podio mondiale l’Italia dell’Export
- Il Mondo: Fisici oltre il PIL, l’idea di Pietronero
- Il Mondo: Soros va a lezione da Pietronero
Conferences and Workshops
- Economic Fitness Workshop a CCS2018
- Economic Fitness presso IFC
- JRC science lecture: Economic Fitness and Complexity
- Economic Complexity Talks presso OECD
Books
- Complessità e altre storie, Luciano Pietronero
- Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Tacchella & Luciano Pietronero Economic Complexity: Measuring the Intangibles
Web Sites
- lucianopietronero.it
- https://www.economic-fitness.com/it
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